Introduction
Since the 2003 avian flu outbreak in Hong Kong, the media has diligently monitored
and reported the geographical migration and human cases of the H5N1 influenza
virus, also known as the avian flu. Multiple articles are published every day
in newspapers and business and medical journals around the world. Updates are posted
several times a day on the internet. Type “avian flu” into any search
engine at any time of day, and you will find the latest news issued 22 hours,
4 hours, or 7 minutes previous to hitting “enter” on your keyboard.
Avian flu reports may be heard daily on National Public Radio and weekly on
one or more of the national news television stations. Experts from the World
Health Organization, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and foreign
departments of health and welfare are quoted on the status of the avian flu,
the spread from Asia to Europe and Africa, the development of vaccines or anti-viral
medications, and the potential for the virus to mutate and turn into an influenza
pandemic. Most recently, the media reports have turned to world, federal and
local leaders for information, action steps, and advice on what business leaders
and individuals should do in preparation for a potential pandemic.
At this point in time, the medical and scientific community is unable to predict
whether the H5N1 virus or another bird-borne virus will mutate into a virus
that is easily transmitted human to human before any signs or symptoms are exhibited in individuals infected with the virus. The risk of mutation exists, and the risk of pandemic
likewise exists, but the severity, lifespan, and ultimate macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts are indeterminable.
To date, the flu has been found mainly in poultry and wild birds, with 103 human
deaths accounted for since 2003 caused predominantly by contact with live,
infected birds and their excrement. The two deaths in China from a few weeks
ago have scientists questioning whether the virus is transmissible to humans
from birds infected with the H5N1 virus but are not showing any signs of illness.
The purpose of this document is to provide our clients with an informative overview
of the potential financial impacts of a pandemic, specifically directed to the
impacts on the insurance industry. We have reviewed the statistics and commentaries
provided by actuarial, economic and insurance experts who have devised predictions
based on their interpretation of historical data and understanding of diverse,
cultural environments. The bottom line: since the medical and scientific community
is unable to establish clear direction on when, how, where, or even if a pandemic
will be caused by the mutation of the H5N1 virus or any other avian virus, our
review is not intended to make waves or sound the alarms. Rather, our intent
is to provide a helpful compilation of the thoughts of experts in the industry
and our interpretation of the volumes of information while keeping in mind that
the environment is in a constant state of change, and the outcomes are as unpredictable
as the avian viruses themselves.
If the reader is interested in learning more about the H5N1 influenza virus,
what the United States government and world leaders are doing to prepare for
a potential pandemic, and what businesses specifically should do to prepare
for an outbreak of the flu in their local communities, there are websites sponsored
by the World Health Organization (
www.who.int),
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (
www.cdc.gov),
and the official United States Government website that is sponsored by the
Department of Health and Human Services, (
www.pandemicflu.gov).
The websites are continually updated and contain statistical data and informative
details on past pandemics, answers to frequently asked questions, and advice
for state and local governments, communities, business leaders, and individuals
on how to prepare for an avian flu outbreak at home or abroad. These websites
also include information on the signs and symptoms of a flu caused by the H5N1
virus and what to expect if a pandemic should occur.
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